Is India faced with a 3.1 lakh crore farm-loan waiver? And will it help?
As requests for exemption from agricultural loans take place through Punjab, Haryana, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka – after Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra have issued loans worth $ 36 359 million rupees and Rs 30 billion rupees , Respectively – India faces a waiver of the accumulated loan at Rs 3.1 lakh rupees, or 2.6 percent of GDP in 2016-17.
The waiver of this scale could pay for the rural roads budget in 2017 or pay 16 times 443 000 stores or increase irrigation potential in India 55% more than the achievements of the last 60 years.
Although such waivers may provide relief to indebted farmers of 32.8 million, an analysis of India’s impact on previous waivers of agricultural loans indicates that these bailouts are uncertain aid aids and the band do not face To a deeper discomfort that prevents the agrarian economy.
More than nine years in March 2017, central and state governments have renounced Rs 88.988 crore in loans to 48.6 million farmers. The loan forgiveness of Rs 52 billion rupees announced nationwide by the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in 2008, but most of that figure.
Disclaimers were designed primarily to discourage farmers’ suicides, allegedly caused by widespread debt. However, our analysis shows that this has had little or no impact on suicide rates, probably due to an average 32.5%, 79.38 million small and marginal farmers in India (with farm shares of less than 1 to 2 hectares) are based on sources of informal credit formations.
Meanwhile, loan disclaimers have resulted in larger non-productive assets (NAPs) from banks, especially public sector banks, and are likely to have a significant impact on national and national budget deficits. In 2013, agricultural NPAs accounted for approximately 41.8 percent of APM’s “priority sector” (which also includes micro and small enterprises, affordable housing and student loans) in public and private banks – against 25 percent 2009 , According to a 2015 study published in the International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR).
For example, the loan exemption of Rs 30,000 million Maharashtra farm for small and marginal farmers will increase the deficit of the state budget to 2.71%, three-quarters (1.18 percentage points) higher than the budgeted deficit 1.53% GSDP for the current year, according to the 2017 report by India’s rating agency and Research (Ind-Ra). Uttar Pradesh Rs 36,359 crore farm-loan represents 2.6 percent of the GSDP. The Finance Committee 14a argues that the budget deficit should not exceed 3 percent of state budgets.
About 85 percent of all exploitable farms in India have less than two hectares. Owners of these constriction farms have difficulty using modern machinery and are often too poor to buy farm equipment. Manual labor increases costs, size and output to further limit access to loans and institutional credit.
On average, one-third of smallholder farmers in India and marginal farmers have access to institutional credit. This means that more than 10.6 million 32.8 million small and marginal farmers in the eight states that require loan exceptions could benefit from debt cancellation.
The other 22.1 million farmers depend on lenders and relatives for loans, according to the 2011 agricultural census and research to assess the household situation of the National Household Survey, the latest data Available.